by jtcorbin on Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:34 pm
While some might find this "math" a bit too simplistic or speculative, I've found through my years of coaching and involvement with multiple sports that it really makes sense or proves to be true over periods of time. It also explains why size-based class systems are justified or effective in some cases.
The hypothesis is that approx 1 out of every 100 boys (or girls) is either a naturally gifted long distance runner or possesses the potential to train to become an upper-echelon quality runner. That being presumed, along with the presumptions that schools possess suitable coaching and resources, a reasonable emphasis on the sport, and don't lose an inordinate amount of their 1/100 athletes to other sports, the following sized-schools should result as follows:
-- 3500+ enrollment schools (Carmel, Warren, NC) - 1800-2200 boys = 18-22 gifted runners - they will always have strong, deep teams because it would take a near mathematical miracle not to have 7 quality runners from that enrollment in any given year. However on the flipside they cannot fully take advantage of their size because, by rule, only 7 of their runners will run varsity at the big meets, leaving so many of their quality athletes/depth on the sideline.
-- 1500-1700 student schools (TH's, LaP, Columbus's, Bloomington's, Zionsville, Carroll) - 700-900 boys = 7-9 gifted runners - will have enough to field a top-caliber team most years, and to survive an injury, illness, or off day to a runner or 2. Running 7 guys per tournament race is a neutralizer with the mega-schools in that the 7 from these tier2 sized-schools can be every bit as good as the 7 from the tier1 sized-schools even though the next 15 runners from the tier 1 sized-schools are likely much stronger.
-- 700-1000 student schools (West Noble, North Harrison, Batesville, West Lafayette, etc) - 400-500 boys = 4-5 gifted runners - since just 5 scores are counted, this group is on the cusp of being there with the first two tiers above and some years when they may find 6 quality runners, they could do quite well. Most years they could not survive an injury or losing one of their top 4. Their deep-tourney success likely depends on how far down their #5 guy is or if they have a #6 who's anywhere close if 1-5 fails on a given day. If their #1 runner happens to be a state-best talent like Byrne who scores very very low, they can get make some real noise. However the many Indiana schools in this size category who don't have a "program" and solid coaching and sport-emphasis over the years, inevitably end up with 2-3 stronger performers but 4th-7th guys in the middle to back that prevents deep advancement.
-- 200-400 student schools - 100-200 boys = 1-2 gifted runners - virtually no mathematical chance 5 upper-echelon runners would end up at the same of this type school within the same year. This type school (i.e. Perry Central or Tri-County) can certainly develop 5-7 "above-average runners" and depending on their semistate difficulty, finish near the top at semistate and/or perhaps top 15 state, but the seemingly only hope that a school of this size would be state top 5 is if they had 2 runners finish top 10 and hope the other 3 could finish 60/70/80 and that around 230-ish points would be good enough. They can't have a #5 guy finish #145 or worse or a #4 finish #100 or worse and hope to accumulate less than 230 points total.
When you consider the scoring methodology and roster/contributor sizes of other sports, it makes sense as to whether classes are needed or where the breakpoints should be. For baseball/softball one upper-echelon pitcher can take a team a long way. Tennis, golf, maybe even basketball a team can succeed with 3-4 upper-echelon performers, volleyball or wrestling a minimum is probably 5, and football probably requires minimum 10 and that's if most of them play both ways. Certainly the coaches who excel at recruitment, retention, and athlete development stretch the math at their schools, but eventually the # of jimmy's and joes carry more weight than the x's and o's.